Brady undervalued by the marketplace for Gauff-Battle
Sabalenka leaves the big shock on the sixth day
The big news from yesterday’s third round matches was the elimination of the second favorite for the tournament, Aryna Sabalenkawho lost to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in three sets. The effects on the overall market are different, with Iga Swiatek’s price barely moving as the 2.3611/8 Tournament favorite, but also Serena Williams 8.07/1 and Paula Badosa 9.89/1 noticeably supported.
Serena prevailed yesterday in a 6-4 6-4 win over her American Danielle Collins, while Badosa was really put to the test by Romanian Ana Bogdan with a 2-6 7-6 6-4 win – save a match point at * 5-6 30-40 in the second sentence.
Brady shows signs of improvement on the clay court
Fourth favorite for the tournament is now Cori Gauff with 19.5 and Gauff is in another all-American duel against Jennifer Brady today. Gauff is that 1.608/13 Favorite what I think is Cheap for reasons I’ll discuss below.
While Brady is certainly better known as a hard placer, she is showing signs of getting better on clay, with two wins against capable opponents here and a decent performance in the Madrid premier about a month ago.
Gauff with excellent sanding results, but often against limited opponents
If we look at Gauff’s 12 month tone numbers, they are exceptional for a player her age (around 104% serve / return points gained) and she is clearly for one incredible career making her likely to win several Grand Slams. It’s worth noting, however, that Brady has marginally better stats overall on clay over the same period, with a decent advantage in service numbers.
Gauff has really impressed on clay this year, but it’s also wise to point out that her wins, with the exception of Aryna Sabalenka in Rome and a retirement win when she lost to Ash Barty in the same tournament, didn’t come up against particularly high-profile opponents. Many have got over opponents in the 40+ ranking or unspectacular clay court players like Qiang Wang, Camila Giorgi and Lauren Davis. 13 of their 15 won matches were the favorites, eight of them as rounds 1.402/5 or among the favorites – was her stats flattered by winning games, which was expected of her?
Opposing a young player with extremely high potential isn’t ideal, but I think Brady is undervalued by the market right now 2.6413/8.
Krejcikova can Svitolina. defeat
I also really like Barbora Krejcikova at 2.285/4 for her match against Elina Svitolina – Krejcikova actually did better tone numbers in the last 12 months despite a lower rank and after winning the Strasbourg warm-up event goes unbeaten after seven games. The Czech player is clearly on an upward curve on clay right now and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if she knocked out Svitolina this morning.
In other games Tournament favorite Iga Swiatek is a big favorite at 1.171/6 to get past Anett Kontaveit while Maria Sakkari versus Elise Mertens is likely to be a really competitive game that is hard to call – I have Sakkari as a very marginal favorite and the market agrees with what they are 1.794/5 at the time of writing.
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