The betting market is already underestimating the Astros and the most effective Remaining 4 bets for the weekend
Hello and Happy Friday. We made it through another week and I know you’ll be itching to come into your weekend. We have the Final Four this weekend, the opening weekend of baseball, the NBA, and the return of football from international hiatus.
And, friends, I have tips for everything for you in this newsletter. I have some MLB games tonight as well as NBA props. I also have tips for Saturday’s last four games, plus a Premier League game, so you can start your Sunday off right. I want to see you flourish.
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But before we get into any of this, we need to catch up on what happened today.
Okay, I know tonight’s intro is a little shorter than usual, but keep scrolling down and you’ll see why soon. We have a full ticket, ladies and gentlemen!
All times east and all odds through William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The hot ticket
Astros at Athletics, 9.40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV.
The choice: Astros (+115): If you were paying attention to one of my MLB futures bets in the letter this week, then you already know that the market greatly underestimates the Astros. Today’s line is another example of this. Don’t get me wrong, I think athletics are a good team and will fight for a place in the playoffs but I’m not sure the Astros should be such a big underdog.
Jesus Luzardo starts for the athletics tonight, and while he is highly regarded as a prospect, he has not yet been particularly impressive in the majors. His strike rate is not where you want it to be, and he has a tendency to give up the long ball. Houston starter Cristian Javier is similar to Luzardo, but I like Houston’s offense more than Oakland’s, so I’m supporting the Astros to get another win tonight.
Key trend: Houston has won four of its last five against Oakland.
Here’s what SportsLine says about the game: The Advanced Computer Model doesn’t like this game nearly as much as I do, but that won’t stop them from voicing their opinions.
💰 The picks
Rays in Marlins, 7:10 PM | TV: MLB.TV.
The choice: rays (-105) – Honestly, that line doesn’t make sense to me. The Rays played in the World Series last season, and even if they lost Blake Snell, they are still the Rays, and they are still the Marlins. Ryan Yarbrough was very effective for the Rays last season and tonight he will face Miami’s Pablo Lopez. I like Lopez but his control is fading and last season he almost halved his allowed HR rate.
As far as I can see, I believe this is due to a small sample size rather than changes. I like the rays down to -115 so if I can get them at -105 I’d have to be an idiot not to take them. Granted, I am fully capable of being. But not today.
Key trend: Tampa has won 18 of the last 24 Miami meetings.
🏀 Last four
No. 1 Baylor versus No. 2 Houston, Saturday, 5:14 p.m. | TV: CBS
The choice: Houston +5 (-110) – OK, so in this newsletter I told you to give Baylor a future in order to reach the Final Four and to win Baylor the national title. Why am I telling you here to take Houston and the dots? Well, while I think Baylor are the better team at this game, I don’t think this is a particularly great matchup for the Bears. Houston is a legitimate problem for anyone on the defensive end of the court, and the Cougars are monsters in the offensive glass. Baylor are not a strong defensive rebounding team and I think this is an area where the Cougars can find an advantage.
I think Baylor wins this game most of the time, but I don’t think it does it in an impressive way. Houston’s defense, offensive rebound, and slower attack pace keep it within reach until the end.
Key trend: Houston is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 UCLA, Saturday, 8:34 p.m. | TV: CBS
The choice: Under 145.5 (-110) – You must know that I’ll bet UCLA against the spread in this game, but I’ll wait until Saturday night when the Gonzaga line could be -15. I don’t bet on UCLA because I think it’s the right bet. I bet UCLA because I owe it so much. The Bruins have made me a lot of money this season, and if the rest of the world gives up on them, I’ll stay with Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell. You can’t put a price on loyalty.
All in all, UCLA and the Points is not the game. That is under. This game reminds me of what we saw with Gonzaga and USC on Tuesday. Either Gonzaga is blowing UCLA away and keeping the Bruins off the scoreboard, or UCLA is slowing things down and keeping them tight. In either case, the game is likely to end below the stated amount. So I’ll be down too
There was also a trend that is hard to ignore in this tournament. We have to remember that these teams live in a bubble. In the first round and the sweet 16, after players were forced to sit in hotel rooms for a week between games, the under went 24-14-1. If you want to include the first four games, that’s at 27-15-1.
Key trend: The Under has lost 24-14-1 in the first round of every NCAA tournament weekend.
⚽ Premier League
Aston Villa v Fulham, Sunday 11:30 a.m. | TV: NBCSN
The choice: Aston Villa (+128) – There are two Aston Villas. There is the Aston Villa with Jack Grealish and the Aston Villa without Jack Grealish. The villa with Grealish accumulates 36 points in 22 games and an average of 1.56 xG per game. The villa without Grealish only scores five points in six games at an average of 0.92 xG. Well Jack Grealish is set to return on Sunday which means the Villa attack will likely return with him. This is great news for a villa that once dreamed of landing in a Europa League. It’s not good news for Fulham, who are still fighting for their lives in the Premier League at the bottom of the table.
For a while it looked like Fulham turned a corner but recent results have come back down and the team’s attack has never looked fierce. As long as we get Aston Villa at +110 or better I think it’s a great game.
Key trend: Aston Villa is just a lot better when Jack plays Grealish.
🔒 SportsLine selection of the day: SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein is 21-9 on his last 30 college basketball picks and has a selection for Saturday’s Final Four matchup between Gonzaga and UCLA.
💸 The DFS Rundown
PG: Trae Young, Hawks
SG: Fred VanVleet, Raptors
SF: Gordon Hayward, Hornets
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
C.: Rudy Gobert, Jazz
PG: TJ McConnell, Pacers
SG: All Mykhailiuk, Donner
SF: Patrick Williams, cops
PF: PJ Washington, Hornets
C.: Robert Williams, Celtics
Full lineup advice
Win NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won nearly $ 2 million in the daily fantasy industry, while Gibbs knocked out the NBA last season, winning around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. Find the DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.
🏀 NBA player props
- DAL Luka Doncic Over 7.5 rebounds (-115)
- BOS Kemba Walker Over 3.5 rebounds (-150)
- CHA Terry Rozier Over 4.5 rebounds (+105)
- LAL Marc Gasol Over 1.5 templates (-160)